Warren Buffett once said: "Be fearful when others
are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful." If you're not instinctively scared of the
housing market, then you probably aren't afraid of tidal waves, global warming
and other "might be's".
The fact that everyone is scared to dabble in housing
makes it a close-to-perfect investment based on Mr. Buffett's principle. But
buying real estate is a good long-term investment for many more reasons, some
of which have only become apparent in recent weeks.
The most striking: Housing prices rose sharply from April
to May. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index rose 2.2% in 20 of the nation's big
cities. Prices shot up more than 3% in Chicago, Atlanta, San Francisco and
Minneapolis. Even Detroit's housing market scored a gain, inching up by 0.4%.
It is now officially cheaper to buy in 100 metropolitan
cities than it is to rent! In other words, if you can buy a home today, you can save
the difference it would cost you to rent even if you stay in the home just five
years. If you can buy a property and rent it, it is almost certain that the
rent will cover the cost of the financing—and the property will appreciate.
Here's where the fear comes in. From 30% to 50% of
existing mortgages in the U.S. market are underwater, depending on the
estimate. That means many borrowers are trapped in their homes and loans. They
either can keep paying and hope prices will improve or walk away, putting
downward pressure on home prices. But if
you aren't planning to move out anytime soon and have job security, what's the
problem? Even if prices fall again or
don't rise significantly, you will still own your own home and eventually it
will be paid off. You get to pay less
taxes and no one can tell you what you can do to your own home or ask you to
leave!
While there is plenty to be afraid of when it comes to
home buying, in the current investing
climate, housing presents an attractive long-term investment that should hold
steady or even have upside surprise in the short term.
Mr. Buffett would remind us that investments of any kind
are not without risk. Each should be considered with the investor's time
horizon and appetites. But he also has acknowledged that real estate is
especially attractive when financing is cheap, there is pent-up demand and
prices have been driven down by a spooked market. Put another way, it's time to
be greedy.